Overall goal: Risk mitigation associated with plausible future large earthquakes and tsunamis in the Mexican Pacific Coast with emphasis in the Guerrero seismic gap based on unprecedented, cutting edge geophysical instrumentation (onshore and offshore), the development of new computational methods, educational material for the population, and the improvement of preventive policies for civil protection.
To achieve this goal we are tackling the following questions: What are the slip rates near the trench during the interseismic period? (i.e., in-between and during slow slip transients) What is the seismic coupling in the plate interface from the trench to deeper inland area? (i.e., is it locked or creeping?) Do large slow slip events (SSE) penetrate offshore regions and how far from the trench? Does the pore water in the subducted plate play a major role? What are the implications in the seismic cycle along the Guerrero gap? What is the probability of occurrence of a megathrust earthquake across the gap including seismically mature neighbor segments of the subduction zone? How big could it be? What is the maximum expected coseismic slip near the trench? Is there geologic evidence of large paleo-tsunami events in the Guerrero gap? How far inland do tsunami deposits extend? What would be the maximum run-up height of the associated tsunami? How large would be the inundation area? How diverse is the coseismic slip through the seismic cycle?
- Generation of tsunami hazard maps with uncertainty at the Guerrero province scale of inundation areas and inundation heights, calibrated with tsunami deposits distribution, due to potential tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap.
- Generation of seismic hazard maps with uncertainty due to large earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap at regional scale and at Mexico City that include seismic-engineering metrics such as pseudo-spectral accelerations (SA, response spectra), peak ground accelerations (PGA) and duration of the strong shaking phase.
- Mapping of aseismic slip and seismic coupling in the plate interface and continental faults from the trench to inland regions.
- Determination of the probability of occurrence of large, potentially devastating earthquakes across the Guerrero seismic gap.
- Catalogs and maps of microearthquake and tectonic tremor along the plate interface up to the trench.
- High-resolution bathymetric imaging of the Guerrero seismic gap and analysis of available LIDAR DEMS of the coast, which are crucial for a better tsunami runup modeling.
- Installation of ocean bottom devices, and land-based GPS and seismic networks along the Guerrero seismic gap, which creates the basis for the future development of tsunami early-warning systems.
- Comprehensive and reliable hazard estimates to be translated into specific civil protection policies in Guerrero (and neighboring provinces) and communication of preventive programs.
- Promotion of tsunami preparedness to develop resilient communities through education products such as tsunami evacuation maps, signs, brochures and other print material to disseminate information to public schools and coastal communities.